COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WTO AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), since its entry into force in 1995, has fundamentally reshaped the rules governing global agricultural trade, with far-reaching implications for food production in developing economies such as Nigeria. Despite Nigeria's status as a founding WTO member, the net welfare effects of the AoA's core pillars, market access, domestic support, and export competition, on the country's agricultural sector remain a subject of considerable policy debate. This study undertakes a cost-benefit analysis of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture and its consequences for food production in Nigeria. The research is anchored on the theory of comparative advantage and structuralist trade theory. A mixed-methods design was adopted, combining structured questionnaires with key informant interviews. From a population of 1,500 farmers, agro-exporters, and trade policy stakeholders, 350 respondents were selected through stratified random sampling, yielding 320 valid questionnaires alongside eight key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and chi-square testing in SPSS version 25, while qualitative responses were subjected to thematic analysis. Findings revealed that respondents perceived limited benefits from improved market access and technology transfer, although export crop diversification and foreign exchange earnings recorded modest gains, while strongly affirming that import surges, unequal subsidy regimes among developed economies, and constrained domestic support capacity had undermined local food production. The chi-square analysis confirmed a statistically significant relationship between WTO Agreement on agriculture provisions and food production outcomes in Nigeria. The study concludes that the costs of AoA implementation currently outweigh its benefits for Nigerian agriculture and recommends renegotiated special and differential treatment, enhanced domestic support, and strengthened agricultural infrastructure.